As the Premier League season reaches its thrilling conclusion, five teams are locked in a fierce race for the remaining three Champions League spots. Newcastle manager Eddie Howe summed it up best: “I had the feeling it would go right to the end.”
With Arsenal’s narrow 1-0 victory over Newcastle on Sunday, they join league champions Liverpool in next season’s Champions League. But with five English teams eligible this year — thanks to strong European performances — there are still three places up for grabs.
Let’s break down the contenders, the permutations, and the fixtures that could define the season.
The Current Situation
As it stands:
- Newcastle, Chelsea, and Aston Villa are tied on 66 points
- Manchester City and Nottingham Forest sit just behind on 65 points
- An extra Champions League spot has been granted to the Premier League this season, meaning five teams will qualify through league position
City, in sixth place, have a game in hand — and therefore control their destiny — while others may need both points and luck.
The Remaining Fixtures
Here’s what’s left for the top contenders:
- Newcastle: vs Everton (H)
- Chelsea: vs Nottingham Forest (A)
- Aston Villa: vs Manchester United (A)
- Manchester City: vs Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)
- Nottingham Forest: vs Chelsea (H)
What the Managers Are Saying
🗣️ Eddie Howe (Newcastle)
“Halfway through the season we weren’t in a great position. We’ve worked incredibly hard to get here. It’s a tight race. We’ve got one more job to do — and we love playing at home.”
Newcastle are already guaranteed at least a Europa Conference League spot (thanks to their Carabao Cup win), but their focus is firmly on the Champions League.
🗣️ Nuno Espírito Santo (Forest)
“It’s magical. Playing for a Champions League place on the final day is something we’d have signed for at the start of the season.”
Forest’s 2-1 win over West Ham kept their dream alive. A victory over Chelsea, coupled with a slip-up from others, could take them to Europe’s elite.
Expert Predictions
According to Opta’s statistical model, here’s the current likelihood of Champions League qualification:
- Manchester City: 85.9%
- Newcastle: 83.5%
- Chelsea: 56.8%
- Aston Villa: 44.4%
- Nottingham Forest: 29.3%
💬 What the Pundits Think
Former Newcastle striker Les Ferdinand believes home advantage could be the decider:
“Newcastle at home to Everton — you’d expect them to win. City have the tools to deliver when it matters.”
Jamie Redknapp added:
“City are still favourites, but Villa have a great fixture against a struggling Manchester United. Forest’s win over West Ham was massive — Chelsea are going to have a real test on their hands.”
Who Else Could Qualify for Europe?
European qualification beyond the Champions League adds another layer of complexity:
- Crystal Palace (12th) have secured Europa League football by winning the FA Cup.
- The 6th-placed team in the league also qualifies for the Europa League.
- Newcastle, as Carabao Cup winners, are guaranteed at least Conference League football — unless they finish higher.
- If Newcastle finish in the top six, then 7th place earns a Conference League spot.
- 8th place could also get into Europe, but only if Chelsea finish 7th and win the Conference League final on 28 May against Real Betis in Wroclaw.
This scenario would push Chelsea into the Europa League as tournament winners, creating an extra space for the 8th-placed league team in the Conference League.
⚽ Race for 8th – Still Wide Open
- Brentford currently sit 8th, just ahead of Brighton on goal difference.
- Fulham and Bournemouth trail closely behind.
- Brighton and Bournemouth both have games in hand — a critical advantage.
Remaining Fixtures for 8th-Place Contenders:
- Brentford: vs Wolves (A)
- Brighton: vs Liverpool (H), Tottenham (A)
- Fulham: vs Manchester City (H)
- Bournemouth: vs Manchester City (A), Leicester (H)
Final Word
The race for the Champions League — and European football in general — is tighter than ever. With high-stakes matches, unpredictable twists, and multiple possibilities, the final weekend promises drama worthy of any script.
Can Eddie Howe’s Newcastle return to Europe’s biggest stage? Will City capitalize on their game in hand? Can Forest deliver a miracle? Or will Chelsea and Villa steal the spotlight?
Whatever happens, don’t miss the Premier League’s epic final day.
